The summer of 2025 will likely go down as the summer of the flash flood. Cities as varied as Chicago and New York and states as far flung as Wisconsin and New Mexico experienced varying levels of death and devastation. No where was this more evident, however, than the massive flooding that occurred in the region known as Texas Hill Country on the evening of July 4. The flooding there claimed the lives of 138 people, some of them children and young adults at Camp Mystic, a popular sleep-away camp. For those of us in the floodplain and stormwater management industries, we know that many if not most of those deaths could have been preventable through proper forecasting, emergency management, and mitigation. While there were failures in all those areas mentioned, this article will focus on mitigation.

A flash flood is defined as runoff from excessive rainfall or snowmelt that causes a rapid rise in water levels in a short period of time. That time can vary but it typically is between 3-6 hours or less after the precipitation falls. Flash floods are the most dangerous types of floods because they come on so quickly and often without adequate warning.  Since people do not have time to prepare, they are often caught off-guard in their homes as flood waters hit or they are swept away in their cars as water levels rise.

Texas Hill Country is referred to as “Flash Flood Alley” by locals, but even they were stunned by the sudden rise in the river early on the morning of Friday, July 4. This time lapse video shows just how quickly one of the rivers in that area flooded. Texas Hill Country is located in a region that is positioned between cool, dry air coming from the north and warm, moist air coming up from the Gulf of Mexico. This meteorological fault line triggers rainfall that can at times be particularly intense and cause the banks of the Colorado, Guadalupe and other rivers and streams to swell. These same rivers are popular tourist attractions for vacationers looking to take advantage of the ample opportunities for boating, swimming, and other water-based recreation. The region is also home to several popular and long-standing summer camps.

In July, these two fronts triggered storms. That was not overly unusual.  What was unusual was the remnants of a lingering tropical storm that had moved into the area. These tropical storm remnants contributed greatly to the moisture in the air. This perfect storm of fronts and moisture produced rainfall that fell on a landscape heavy in limestone. The geology of the area caused much of the precipitation to runoff directly into the river, a river that weaves its way through a hilly landscape with development located predominantly along its flatter areas closer to the water. The Guadalupe River rose from a height of 7 feet to over 37 feet in fewer than four hours. Statically, it would be considered a 1-in-1,000-year rainfall event.

While every loss of life is a tragedy, perhaps most tragic was the loss of 27 young people including campers, counselors, and the camp director at Camp Mystic, an all-girls Christian summer camp. The camp had experienced numerous floods in the past including significant events in 1978 and 1984. A large part of it was located in the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA). The SFHA, also known as the 100-year floodplain, is the area that is expected to be inundated by waters of a flood that has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. Hence the term 1% annual chance flood, which is what most floodplain managers try to use to best convey the likelihood of a flood occurring in the SFHA.

In 2013 FEMA amended the maps that included Camp Mystic following an appeal. This removed 15 of the camp’s buildings out of the SFHA. After additional appeals,15 more buildings were removed in 2019 and 2020. It should be noted that those buildings removed in 2019 and 2020 suffered less damage than the original 15 that were removed as they were located in a different part of the camp and on slightly elevated ground.

While we can never know for sure, it is possible that if the camp structures had remained in the mapped SFHA and if NFIP regulations had been adhered to, there would have been less development in the floodplain. Additionally, any additional development that did occur would have been mitigated to reduce damage from flooding. It is also possible that those 27 people, many of them children, would still be alive today.

Stories like this abound in other parts of the country where pressure is put on FEMA to remove structures from the SFHA. Oftentimes property owners seek to get out of the SFHA to reduce or completely avoid paying flood insurance premiums. They also hope to avoid having to build their new or substantially improved construction in compliance with NFIP standards. While these standards can be expensive, they have been proven to reduce or sometimes even eliminate damages that occur to a structure as a result of flooding. This ultimately saves money in the long run.

More importantly, however, NFIP standards and regulations save lives. As in the case of Camp Mystic, and likely many other summer camps, if its buildings were constructed on high ground they may not have flooded or even if they did it would have bought more time for campers and camp staff to safely evacuate. Contrast this with the Ashokan Center, a year-round overnight and day camp located in Olivebridge, NY. The original structures on this property were in an area that was known to flood. This was exacerbated by releases from a local reservoir. Working together, the municipality that owned the reservoir and the camp paid to demolish the old structures in harm’s way and build new ones on higher ground, well above the area that was known to inundate. Access to the water is still available, but campers no longer sleep in buildings threatened by rising flood waters. While the circumstances around the causes and types of flooding that were experienced at Camp Mystic were different than that at the Ashokan Center, this particular case study shows that there are always opportunities for mitigation.

In late September 2025, less than three months after the tragic flooding and loss of life, it was announced that Camp Mystic Cypress Lake, a nearby sister site to the original Camp Mystic, would reopen in 2026, despite outcries from family members who lost loved ones in the flooding. The original Camp Mystic (on the Guadalupe River) is too damaged to return to operations and will remain closed for the time being. Camp Mystic has said that they are working with engineers to comply with recently passed legislation on summer camp safety.

Mitigation saves money, property, and most importantly, lives. While a flood the magnitude of the one that hit Texas earlier this year would certainly incur damages, those damages could have been greatly reduced with much less loss of life if mitigation measures had been taken. As Dr. Gilbert White, the father of modern floodplain management, stated in 1942, “Floods are acts of God, but flood losses are largely acts of man.” Let’s learn the lesson from these tragedies and work to avoid them as much as we possibly can.